Global Warming Disaster

vIndianz.com — Even as a good part of the world population is still blissfully unaware of the concept of global warming, and another part calls it a myth, scientists are busy evaluating and preparing so much so that a Plan B is getting ready, just in case Plan A – reducing the greenhouse gas emissions – fails.

Engineers and scientists in Britain are coming up with a number of alternatives that involves geo-engineering tactics. They have two approaches to suggest: one was to remove the Carbondioxide content in the atmosphere and two, to reflect back some of the sunlight into space so earth would remain cool. Even though the former approach is preferred owing to its stature as the conditions that existed before the global warming crisis, the second method promises to be a quick and more efficient one. All these are, however, pretty expensive, so the engineers came up with other alternatives: artificial trees on roadways, which are capable of sucking up the heat-trapping CO2 content from the air. Another proposal was to grow algae on the sides of buildings which will use a good amount of CO2 in the air for photosynthesis. Yet another realistic suggestion was to paint rooftops white which could immensely reduce the “urban heat island” effect by which the cities heat up more due to the dark colored buildings.

How bad is the problem?

However, while the world is up in arms against CO2 on a save-planet mission, a new study by Purdue University and NASA has ousted both methane and CO2 as the worst of the chemicals causing global warming. The study has said that chemicals like sulfur and compounds containing fluorine atoms have the ability to block radiation in the atmosphere. However, chemicals like CO2 do not fare as well as these compounds in closing the atmospheric window.

So how bad is the problem? The Global Carbon Project which comprises a group of scientists predicted that planet earth was heading for a 6 degree Celsius temperature increase by the end of the century. In the 1990s, the carbon emissions have been increasing by 1% every year but starting 2000 this has gone up to 3.4% per year. And while the carbon content kept increasing, the condition of carbon sinks has been going down. Oceans and forests which could process carbon, has been steadily degrading, with the forests removed for agricultural or developmental purposes.

All eyes on Copenhagen

The people are keeping their fingers crossed and waiting for the result of the Copenhagen meeting when the developed countries would commit to reduce carbon emissions while the developing countries are expected to be monitored to meet softer goals. The US and China, two countries producing the maximum amount of greenhouse gases, committed to reach a political agreement at Copenhagen as the presidents of the respective countries, Barack Obama and Hu Jintao shook hands over it, during their meeting in China.

But even as the talk for the reduction of the greenhouse gas emissions is doing rounds, a new research found that, it may not just be enough to remove these heat-trapping gases off the atmosphere. The research, conducted by Professor Brian Stone of the Georgia Institute of Technology strongly feels that there should be serious considerations to broaden the strategies of fighting global warming. What they call “land use changes” is one of the biggest contributors to the current crisis, believes Stone. This would again refer to the numerous cutting down of trees and clearing of forests. Plant millions of trees in urban areas, protect and regenerate forests – that is the idea proposed by Stone.

Soot: A non-issue?

Meanwhile, climate expert and Nobel laureate R K Pachauri says that black carbon even though remains a concern, can’t be associated with global warming until a detailed study on its impact can be carried out. However, other scientists like V Ramanathan and Greg Carmichael claim that soot and other forms of black carbon could make up to 60% of the global warming effect of CO2. Climate experts from the West wanted to bring the soot issue in the Copenhagen talk putting pressure on India and other developing nations which depended a lot on fossil fuels for energy production.

Meanwhile, agriculture continues to play a one-on-one with global warming while each strives hard to meet the challenges posed by the other. While global warming would affect the agricultural productivity and reduce crop yields, agriculture contributes to around 10% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. The International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) is working to design crops that can adapt to the climate change problem and reduce the emissions.

Himalayan Crisis

In India, another concern is regarding the Himalayan crisis where the glaciers are receding faster than in the rest of the world. While the findings of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) linked it directly to the effects of climate change, the Union Ministry of Environment and Forests issued a paper, commenting that there was no proof to conclude that the glacial crisis was impacted by global warming. The IPCC, however, fears that if the glaciers continue the retreat in the same manner, they are likely to disappear completely by 2035.

The result of the earth warming at this rate would be water scarcity to at least a billion people in Asia. The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) scientists pointed out that the excessive melting of the Himalayas has led to forming of lakes in Nepal, Sikkim and Bhutan. In India, a temperature rise of 4 to 5 degree Celsius is expected to take place over the north western states, at the turn of the century. This would affect the vegetation across the Himalayan states of Jammu & Kashmir, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh.

Also, geologists have observed that 40% of the 2km that the Gangotri river has retreated, took place in the last 25 years. Giving more evidence, the Indian space agency’s Space Allocations, after studying 466 glaciers found that, 21% of it had shrunk since 1962.

It is not just the Himalayas that are suffering from the glacial retreat. The snows of Kilimanjaro may very well be gone by 2022. According to reports, of the ice that covered the highest peak in Africa in 1912, 85% disappeared and from the ice present in 2000, 26% is now gone. With the mountains all over the globe including those in Africa, South America and the Himalayas suffering the same way, there is little doubt that the harm is a result of the planet’s climate change crisis.

As the effects of the crisis takes place in different parts of the world, the phenomenon is increasingly showing proof of its global nature. Arab countries too have joined the fear-cry as a regional report warned of a severe impact on the states, weeks ahead of the Copenhagen meet. The 2009 Report of the Arab Forum for Environment and Development mentioned depletion of agricultural land, spread of diseases and endangerment of plants and animals as one of the major impacts of the crisis. Sea level rise will threaten countries including Egypt, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Tunisia.

In the middle of all these charges and alarms, there may be a 2% drop in the carbon emissions, according to the Global Carbon Project. But it would be hard to rejoice in the news since what causes it is another major disaster that the world now faces: global financial crisis.

Act now or perish

At the same time, the go-vegetarian campaigns are gaining more importance with many reports linking meat to greenhouse gas emissions and many celebrities joining the cause. British economist Lord Nicholas Stern who wrote a report on the economics of climate change is urging the public to follow a vegetarian diet, to slow the accumulation of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In a 2006 UN report, it was concluded that livestock farming across the world contributes to 18 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions, while the transport system comprising cars, trains, planes and boats produced 13% of the emissions. What experts encourage the people to do is make a good start by going vegetarian one day a week.

Former US vice president Al Gore, in his book “Our choice” talks about either of the two questions that the future generation may ask us about the way we fought the global warming crisis. He says: ‘Either they will ask, “What were you thinking? Didn’t you see the entire North Pole ice cap melting before your eyes? Did you not care?”

Or they will ask instead, “How did you find the moral courage to rise up and solve a crisis so many said was impossible to solve?”

We must choose which of these questions to answer, and we must give our answer now – not in words but in actions…’

Al Gore hopes to answer the second question by saying that the turning point was in the year 2009 with the inauguration of a new president and the truth about the crisis gaining ground even through stiff resistance and skepticism. And in the end, “a few of the opponents of change changed themselves.”

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Global Warming: Heralding disaster

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